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Coronavirus|India to witness COVID-19 peak in mid- November, says ICMR study

India registered more than 10,000 cases for the third day in a row and is the fourth worst-hit nation by the pandemic

India registered more than 10,000 cases for the third day in a row and is the fourth worst-hit nation by the pandemic. The study conducted by researches from an Operations Research Group constituted by the Indian Council of Medical and Research (ICMR) said that the eight-week lockdown along with strengthened public health measures and it may arrive around mid- November during which there could be a paucity of isolation and ICU beds, and ventilators, according to a study.

And also added that the lockdown shifted the peak of the pandemic by an estimated 34 to 76 days and helped in bringing down the number of infections by 69% to 97%, thereby, allowing time for the healthcare system to shore up resources and infrastructure.

The scenario of intensified public health measures with 60% effectiveness after lockdown, it was considered that the demand can be met until the first week of November. After that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6, and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the health researchers showed.

As every day India is recording a new spike in COVID cases takes India tally to 3,20,922; death toll reaches 9,195. However, this shortfall is estimated to 83% less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures.

As government are taking steps towards in developing the infrastructure and different pace of epidemic in different regions, the impact of unfulfilled needs can be reduced. if the coverage of public health measures can be increased to 80%, the epidemic can be mitigated, the researches sstated.

According to this model provided by ICMR analysis for the COVID-19 pandemic in India, it is assumed that the eight-week period of lockdown helped in increasing the healthcare infrastructure capacity which has been built for testing and isolating patients. it was considered that the figures would come down by 70% and the cumulative cases may come down by nearly 27%.

In terms of mortality rate of Coronavirus, approx 60% deaths were prevented and one-third of this mortality prevention is attributed to the reduction in unmet need for critical care as a result of the intervention, the analysis showed.

Researchers are predicting ” While lockdowns will delay the onset of peak and will give the much needed time for the health system to respond, strengthening the health system response in terms of testing, isolation of cases, treatment and contact tracing, as is being done currently, will have to be the mainstay to reduce the impact of the pandemic in India until a vaccine becomes available”.

Researchers are also saying that India’s overall economic health system cost of this pandemic is estimated to be 6.2 percent of India’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The  Ministry, on June 9, said COVID-related health infrastructure in the country had been strengthened with the availability of 958 dedicated COVID-19 hospitals with 1,67,883 isolation beds, 21,614 ICU, and 73,469 oxygen supported beds. As many as 2,313 dedicated COVID Health Centres with 1,33,037 isolation beds, 10,748 ICU beds, and 46,635 oxygen-supported beds have also been operationalized. Moreover, 7,525 COVID Care Centres with 7,10,642 beds are now available to combat COVID-19 in the country.

The ventilators available for COVID beds were 21,494, the Ministry had said, adding that the order of 60,848 more ventilators had been placed.

The study is just a broad analysis based on different scenarios, it is yet to be seen if this model will help India to overcome this pandemic?